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DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Paris:20180515T130000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Paris:20180515T140000
DTSTAMP:20260408T123414
CREATED:20180410T175306Z
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SUMMARY:Nikos Kouvaris (UNamur)
DESCRIPTION:Title: Feedback induced stationary and oscillatory patterns in complex bistable networks \nAbstract: In this talk we will present theoretical and experimental findings on pattern formation in bistable chemical networks. Effects of feedbacks on self-organization phenomena will also be discussed. For regular trees\, an approximate analytical theory for localized stationary patterns under application of global feedbacks is constructed. Using it\, properties of such patterns in different parts of the parameter space are discussed. We will also show that localized oscillatory patterns can be formed in these networks if the global feedback is applied with certain time delay. Linear stability analysis has revealed a critical time delay for which the system undergoes a Hopf bifurcation and exhibits limit cycles of small amplitudes. Furthermore\, we will present results from numerical investigations for large random Erdös-Rényi and scale-free networks. In both kinds of systems localized active patterns consist of a subnetwork\, whose size decreases as the feedback intensity increases. In the later random networks local feedbacks affecting only the hubs or the peripheral nodes are also considered.
URL:https://www.naxys.be/event/nikos-kouvaris-unamur/
LOCATION:E25
CATEGORIES:NAXYS Seminar
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DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Paris:20180523T130000
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CREATED:20180409T151620Z
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SUMMARY:Pietro Coletti (University of Hasselt)
DESCRIPTION:Title: Regular school closure & influenza epidemics: a data-driven spatial transmission model for Belgium \n\nAbstract: School closure is often considered as an option to mitigate influenza epidemics because of its potential to reduce transmission in children and then in the community. The policy is still however highly debated because of controversial evidence. Moreover\, the specific mechanisms leading to mitigation are not clearly identified. We introduced a stochastic spatial age-specific metapopulation model to assess the role of holiday-associated behavioral changes and how they affect seasonal influenza dynamics. The model is applied to Belgium\, parameterized with country-specific data on social mixing and travel\, and calibrated to the 2008/2009 influenza season. It includes behavioral changes occurring during weekend vs. week\, and holiday vs. school-term. Several experimental scenarios are explored to identify the relevant social and behavioral mechanisms. \nStochastic numerical simulations show that holidays considerably delay the peak of the season and mitigate its impact. Changes in mixing patterns are responsible for the observed effects\, whereas changes in travel behavior do not alter the epidemic. Weekends are important in slowing down the season by periodically dampening transmission. Christmas holidays have the largest impact on the epidemic\, however later school breaks may help in reducing the epidemic size\, stressing the importance of considering the full calendar. \nChanges in the way individuals establish contacts during holidays are the key ingredient explaining the mitigating effect of regular school closure. Our findings highlight the need to quantify these changes in different demographic and epidemic contexts in order to provide accurate and reliable evaluations of closure effectiveness. They also suggest strategic policies in the distribution of holiday periods to minimize the epidemic impact.
URL:https://www.naxys.be/event/pietro-coletti-university-of-hasselt/
LOCATION:E25
CATEGORIES:NAXYS Seminar
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