BEGIN:VCALENDAR
VERSION:2.0
PRODID:-//Namur Institute For Complex Systems - ECPv6.15.14//NONSGML v1.0//EN
CALSCALE:GREGORIAN
METHOD:PUBLISH
X-ORIGINAL-URL:https://www.naxys.be
X-WR-CALDESC:Events for Namur Institute For Complex Systems
REFRESH-INTERVAL;VALUE=DURATION:PT1H
X-Robots-Tag:noindex
X-PUBLISHED-TTL:PT1H
BEGIN:VTIMEZONE
TZID:Europe/Paris
BEGIN:DAYLIGHT
TZOFFSETFROM:+0100
TZOFFSETTO:+0200
TZNAME:CEST
DTSTART:20170326T010000
END:DAYLIGHT
BEGIN:STANDARD
TZOFFSETFROM:+0200
TZOFFSETTO:+0100
TZNAME:CET
DTSTART:20171029T010000
END:STANDARD
BEGIN:DAYLIGHT
TZOFFSETFROM:+0100
TZOFFSETTO:+0200
TZNAME:CEST
DTSTART:20180325T010000
END:DAYLIGHT
BEGIN:STANDARD
TZOFFSETFROM:+0200
TZOFFSETTO:+0100
TZNAME:CET
DTSTART:20181028T010000
END:STANDARD
BEGIN:DAYLIGHT
TZOFFSETFROM:+0100
TZOFFSETTO:+0200
TZNAME:CEST
DTSTART:20190331T010000
END:DAYLIGHT
BEGIN:STANDARD
TZOFFSETFROM:+0200
TZOFFSETTO:+0100
TZNAME:CET
DTSTART:20191027T010000
END:STANDARD
END:VTIMEZONE
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Paris:20180523T130000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Paris:20180523T140000
DTSTAMP:20260405T165257
CREATED:20180409T151620Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20180409T151620Z
UID:383-1527080400-1527084000@www.naxys.be
SUMMARY:Pietro Coletti (University of Hasselt)
DESCRIPTION:Title: Regular school closure & influenza epidemics: a data-driven spatial transmission model for Belgium \n\nAbstract: School closure is often considered as an option to mitigate influenza epidemics because of its potential to reduce transmission in children and then in the community. The policy is still however highly debated because of controversial evidence. Moreover\, the specific mechanisms leading to mitigation are not clearly identified. We introduced a stochastic spatial age-specific metapopulation model to assess the role of holiday-associated behavioral changes and how they affect seasonal influenza dynamics. The model is applied to Belgium\, parameterized with country-specific data on social mixing and travel\, and calibrated to the 2008/2009 influenza season. It includes behavioral changes occurring during weekend vs. week\, and holiday vs. school-term. Several experimental scenarios are explored to identify the relevant social and behavioral mechanisms. \nStochastic numerical simulations show that holidays considerably delay the peak of the season and mitigate its impact. Changes in mixing patterns are responsible for the observed effects\, whereas changes in travel behavior do not alter the epidemic. Weekends are important in slowing down the season by periodically dampening transmission. Christmas holidays have the largest impact on the epidemic\, however later school breaks may help in reducing the epidemic size\, stressing the importance of considering the full calendar. \nChanges in the way individuals establish contacts during holidays are the key ingredient explaining the mitigating effect of regular school closure. Our findings highlight the need to quantify these changes in different demographic and epidemic contexts in order to provide accurate and reliable evaluations of closure effectiveness. They also suggest strategic policies in the distribution of holiday periods to minimize the epidemic impact.
URL:https://www.naxys.be/event/pietro-coletti-university-of-hasselt/
LOCATION:E25
CATEGORIES:NAXYS Seminar
END:VEVENT
END:VCALENDAR