Philippe Naveau (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE) CNRS, France)

Title: Records Analysis in Climate Attribution

Abstract: Numerical climate models are complex and combine a large number of physical processes. They are key tools in quantifying the relative contribution of potential anthropogenic causes (e.g., the current increase in greenhouse gases) on high-impact atmospheric variables like heavy rainfall or temperatures. These so-called climate extreme event attribution problems are particularly challenging in a non-stationary context. In addition, global climate models like any in sillico numerical experiments are affected by different types of bias. In this talk, I will discuss about how to combine to different statistical concepts to assess records changes in the context of extreme event attribution. In addition, the question of uncertainties quantification that remains a challenge in any climate attribution analysis will be explored from various directions. In particular, a simple model bias correction step for records will described in detail. To illustrate our approach, we infer emergence times in precipitation from the CMIP5 and CMIP6 archives. This is joint work with Paula Gonzalez, Soulivanh Thao and Julien Worms.

The seminar will take place in Room S08 at the Faculty of Sciences.