Serge Richard (Nagoya University)

Title: Age-structured model of dengue transmission dynamics with time-varying parameters, and its application to Brazil

Abstract: During this seminar, we shall introduce an age-structured mathematical model with time-dependent parameters developed for investigating the dynamics of dengue transmission. Formulas for the basic reproduction number and the time-varying effective reproduction number will be presented. We shall then apply this model to Brazil and use weekly time series data from this country. Various medical parameters will be evaluated from these data, and an extensive numerical simulations for the period 2021 – 2024 will be presented. Finally, model predictions for the following year by using different transmission rates will be introduced. The importance of an age-structured population and climate variability will be emphasized.

This presentation is based on a joint work with Ihtisham Ul Haq (Nagoya University).

This seminar will take place in Room S08 at the Faculty of Sciences.